The October Global Risk Review Report provides concise, critical analysis of pressing geopolitical, economic and humanitarian developments, offering decision-makers insight into emerging risks and systemic shifts. This edition highlights a world facing heightened instability, where political violence, institutional fragility and regional tensions intersect – from the assassination of U.S. political figures to mass protests across South and Southeast Asia – underscoring the interconnected nature of contemporary crises.
Democratic Strain and Political Violence
- The assassination of US political figure Charlie Kirk emerged as a symbolic inflection point, reflecting the normalisation of political violence and deepening ideological polarisation in Western democracies.
- Across the US, UK and Europe, political discourse is increasingly fragmented with rising populism, erosion of civic norms and declining trust in institutions.
Youth Mobilisation and Digital Activism
- In Nepal, Gen Z-led protests catalysed a political transition, demonstrating the power of digital mobilisation against corruption, censorship and elite dominance.
- Youth movements globally are increasingly impatient with traditional governance, leveraging social media to demand accountability, but also risking destabilisation through misinformation and flash mobilisation.
Geopolitical Tensions and Strategic Drift
- Russia’s hybrid aggression – including drone incursions, cyberattacks and airspace violations – continues to test NATO’s defensive posture and expose systemic vulnerabilities.
- Israel’s expanding military operations and diplomatic isolation, particularly following airstrikes in multiple Arab states and growing international criticism, reflect a shift in global sentiment and strategic realignment.
Governance Gaps and Institutional Erosion
- Across multiple regions, governance is increasingly reactive, fragmented and ideologically polarised. The absence of strategic continuity and expert consultation has weakened institutional resilience.
- The concept of ‘Maslow’s governance’ was introduced, urging states to prioritise foundational public needs – security, stability and essential services – before pursuing higher-order reforms.
- In Nepal, the interim government’s merit-based appointments and austerity measures signal a potential shift toward service-oriented leadership, though fragility remains.
Economic Inequality and Social Unrest
- France, Indonesia and Nepal have witnessed mass protests driven by austerity, inequality and governance failures. These movements reflect broader global discontent with elite privilege and economic exclusion.
- In Europe, stagnant growth, regulatory complexity and youth disenfranchisement are fuelling populist movements and challenging traditional political structures.
Cybersecurity, Health Trust and Technological Vulnerability
- Cyberattacks on critical infrastructure in Europe and the Middle East highlight growing exposure to hybrid threats.
- Public trust in health systems is eroding amid concerns over pharmaceutical safety and misinformation, compounding societal anxiety and institutional fragility.
Global Governance and Strategic Realignment
- Multilateral institutions such as the UN and NATO face credibility challenges amid rising geopolitical competition and internal divisions.
- The retreat of Western nations from sustained foreign aid and cooperative frameworks has weakened global influence and opened space for rival powers to expand their reach.
- Strategic alliances are increasingly shaped by geography and economic interdependence rather than shared values, as seen in U.S.–Australia relations and China–Russia dynamics.
Cultural Symbolism and Soft Power
- The use of foreign political figures as cultural icons – such as Serbia’s mural of Charlie Kirk – illustrates how soft power and symbolic politics are being leveraged to reinforce domestic narratives and ideological alignment.
Resilience and the Imperative of Trust
- Across all the Global Crisis Watch sessions, a recurring theme is the erosion of trust – between citizens and institutions, among international partners and within governance systems.
- Building resilience requires not only technical preparedness but also relational integrity, transparency, and inclusive leadership that reflects societal realities.
