You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 338, on Friday, May 16th at 17:00 BST / 12:00 EDT.
The highlighted topics will include:
US-Saudi Relations ‘More Powerful Than Ever’ as Trump Courts Gulf Leaders
On his first foreign trip since returning to office, US President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, reaffirming strong ties with the kingdom through a series of high-profile agreements. The most significant announcement was a $142 billion arms deal with Riyadh, accompanied by additional investments that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said could total up to $1 trillion over time. Trump praised the bilateral relationship as “more powerful than ever before” and emphasized its importance to US economic and strategic interests.
Trump used the visit to signal major shifts in US foreign policy. In a keynote address in Riyadh, he announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, stating the country deserved “a chance at greatness.” He also extended an “olive branch” to Iran, offering talks while warning of “massive, maximum pressure” if Tehran rejected diplomacy. Trump reiterated his desire to see Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and several Gulf nations mediated during his first term.
On the ongoing Gaza conflict, Trump made brief remarks, saying civilians “deserve a much better future,” while criticizing Hamas for the violence that erupted after the October 7th attacks on Israel. His speech
coincided with news of an Israeli airstrike killing at least 16 people in a hospital in Khan Younis.
The tone of this visit marks a clear distinction from the Biden administration’s more critical stance toward Saudi Arabia. Biden had once vowed to make the kingdom a “pariah” over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and paused arms sales early in his presidency before resuming them later.
Trump’s four-day tour continues in Qatar and the UAE, with the latter pledging to invest $1.4 trillion in the US economy. His delegation includes business leaders like Elon Musk, underlining his administration’s emphasis on foreign investment and economic diplomacy.
US Cuts China Parcel Tariff as Trade Relations Show Signs of Thawing
The United States has reduced tariffs on small packages from China, signaling a shift in trade relations between the two economic giants. Effective from May 14th the US lowered the “de minimis” tariff from 120% to 54% on parcels valued up to $800. Additionally, a proposed $200 flat fee on these shipments, set to take effect in June, was canceled, keeping the fee at $100. This change follows a broader trade agreement between the US and China, which also included reductions in the overall tariffs between the two countries.
The “de minimis” exemption, which allowed small shipments from China to enter the US without duties or extensive customs inspections, had been heavily utilized by Chinese e-commerce companies like Shein and Temu. These companies, which rely on fast, direct shipping to consumers, were a key factor in the high volume of de minimis shipments entering the US. The Trump administration had previously criticized this exemption for facilitating trade in cheap goods and contributing to the illegal trafficking of items like fentanyl.
The reduction in tariffs provides temporary relief for Chinese retailers, but experts note that the 54% tariff remains high. While it may push companies like Shein to rethink their logistics and shift toward bulk shipping, the tariff reduction gives them time to adapt. The broader trade agreement also slashed US duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reduced its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, both for at least 90 days.
Markets responded positively to the trade deal, and China also lifted a ban on Boeing aircraft deliveries, signaling a step toward normalizing trade relations. While the tariff reductions are temporary, they provide a crucial breathing room for negotiations and allow businesses on both sides to adjust to the changing landscape.
From Civil War to Border Policy: Trump Revives Habeas Corpus Debate
The Trump administration is reportedly considering suspending habeas corpus — a fundamental legal principle that protects individuals from unlawful detention by allowing them to challenge their imprisonment in court. White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller has suggested that suspending this “privilege” would enable faster deportations of undocumented migrants, framing the situation at the US-Mexico border as an “invasion” requiring extraordinary executive action.
Habeas corpus, Latin for “you should have the body,” dates back centuries and has long been a cornerstone of democratic legal systems. The US Constitution permits its suspension only “in cases of rebellion or invasion [when] the public safety may require it,” and legal scholars agree that only Congress has the authority to do so — not the president. Past suspensions occurred during the Civil War, Reconstruction, a 1905 Philippine insurrection and World War II in Hawaii.
Legal experts and courts, including the Supreme Court, have consistently upheld that both US citizens and non-citizens on US soil have habeas rights. Several recent deportation cases, including those of student protesters, have been challenged through habeas petitions. In 2021, a Guantanamo detainee became the first to win such a petition after over a decade.
Trump’s assertion that millions of migrants cannot reasonably have their cases heard in court has led him to call for faster removals, invoking executive power under the Alien Enemies Act — an approach repeatedly blocked by federal judges who ruled that no “invasion” exists. Critics argue the administration’s stance reflects a willingness to undermine judicial authority when rulings are unfavorable.
Trump recently issued a proclamation to add 20,000 immigration officers via deputized local law enforcement, intensifying the immigration crackdown and raising concerns about constitutional limits and the erosion of due process protections.
China Offers $9.2 Billion Yuan Credit to Latin America to Deepen Strategic Ties
At the China-CELAC (Community of Latin American and Caribbean States) Forum in Beijing, President Xi Jinping announced a $9.2 billion credit line for Latin American and Caribbean countries, part of China’s broader push to strengthen ties with the region and challenge US influence. The credit, denominated in Chinese yuan, marks a strategic move to internationalize China’s currency and reduce dependence on the US dollar in global trade.
Xi positioned the partnership as part of a shared Global South vision, emphasizing independence, fairness and development. He committed to Chinese imports from the region, new infrastructure investments and a visa-free policy for five unnamed CELAC countries. A joint action plan for cooperation through 2027 was also adopted.
Latin America’s growing ties with China reflect major shifts in global trade. Two-thirds of CELAC members have joined China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and in countries like Brazil, Chile and Peru, China has overtaken the US as the leading trading partner. In 2024, China’s trade with the CELAC bloc reached $515 billion, with Brazil alone accounting for nearly half of China’s imports from the region.
Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva welcomed deeper ties but urged caution, stressing that Latin America’s destiny should not rely on external powers, including China, the US or the EU. Despite this, Brazil signed cooperation agreements with China in agriculture, nuclear energy and technical fields.
The yuan-based credit line could offer welcome relief for countries struggling to access capital but may pose challenges for those burdened with dollar-denominated debt. Analysts note it’s part of China’s growing strategy of regional engagement through currency swaps and non-dollar transactions.
The summit also carried geopolitical undertones, as China seeks to reduce Taiwan’s diplomatic presence. Several nations that still recognize Taiwan, including Haiti and Saint Lucia, participated— suggesting China’s soft power strategy is gaining ground.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
