by Abhishek Roy
Earlier today, Israel launched a series of large-scale airstrikes on Iranian territory, targeting multiple nuclear facilities, air defence systems, and high-ranking Iranian military officials. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has confirmed the deaths of several senior commanders, as well as prominent nuclear scientists. According to Iranian state media and international observers, the strikes are still ongoing as of publication, and the world is now holding its breath for Iran’s response.
These strikes come after months of growing international concern over Iran’s nuclear program. Multiple intelligence assessments and reports by nuclear watchdogs have warned that Tehran is rapidly approaching the technical capability to enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon, potentially within the next few years, or even months. Just last week, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) declared that Iran has failed to meet several of its nuclear obligations and continues to restrict inspector access to key facilities.
While Iranian officials have repeatedly claimed that their nuclear program is intended solely for peaceful energy purposes, senior leaders – including figures within the IRGC – have, at times, hinted at the possibility of developing nuclear weapons should geopolitical pressures escalate further.
Now, that escalation has arrived.
The Short-Term Fallout
The immediate aftermath of Israel’s airstrikes will almost certainly involve some form of Iranian retaliation. The targeting of nuclear sites and the killing of IRGC commanders are seen as red lines, and Tehran will feel compelled to respond, both for strategic deterrence and domestic legitimacy.
In the short term, that response could include missile strikes on Israeli cities, military installations, or economic infrastructure. Proxy forces aligned with Iran – including Hezbollah in Lebanon, Shiite militias in Iraq, and the Houthis in Yemen – may already be preparing coordinated attacks on Israeli or U.S.-linked targets across the region. The risk of asymmetric warfare, drone strikes, and attacks on shipping lanes – particularly through the critical Strait of Hormuz – is rapidly rising.
The U.S. had already begun evacuating diplomatic personnel from Baghdad and authorized voluntary departures of staff from other embassies in the region. It now appears those moves were precautionary steps ahead of a known or anticipated Israeli operation.
Medium and Long-Term Implications
Collapse of Regional Diplomacy
The strikes risk upending the fragile diplomatic balance in the Middle East. The Abraham Accords, which normalized relations between Israel and several Arab states, could fracture under the weight of a direct war between Iran and Israel. Nations like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, already navigating complex relationships with both sides, may find their neutrality untenable in the face of escalating hostilities.
Radicalization and Recruitment
A military confrontation between Israel and Iran will likely become a propaganda windfall for extremist groups across the Islamic world. The portrayal of a sovereign Muslim state under attack by a Western-aligned power could spark a new wave of radicalization, fundraising, and recruitment, particularly among disenfranchised youth in unstable regions.
Nuclear Acceleration, Not Delay
Ironically, rather than halting Iran’s nuclear ambitions, Israel’s strikes may accelerate them. In the face of military threats, Tehran could formally abandon the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), end cooperation with the IAEA, and push its nuclear program entirely underground. If Iran calculates that only a nuclear deterrent can prevent future strikes, the world may soon face a much more dangerous nuclear crisis.
Strategic Realignments
The war’s ripple effects may extend well beyond the Middle East. A perception of U.S. complicity or ineffectiveness could push Gulf states to seek alternative strategic partnerships, most notably with China or Russia. These global powers may see an opportunity to expand their diplomatic and military presence in the region as American influence appears to wane.
Economic Shocks and Global Disruption
The economic fallout could be swift and severe. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of global oil supplies pass – would spike oil prices and jolt global markets. Energy-importing nations across Europe and Asia, already grappling with inflation and supply chain issues, would be particularly vulnerable to such shocks. Oil prices have witnessed steep fluctuations in the hours following the Israeli strikes, and where this will stop is anyone’s guess.
Internal Fallout and Regime Stability in Iran
While the Islamic Republic has maintained a firm grip on power for decades, a prolonged conflict that exposes military vulnerabilities and leads to significant domestic hardship could challenge the regime’s internal stability. Though a full-scale collapse remains unlikely without sustained and overwhelming military pressure, Iranian leadership will be acutely aware of how external conflict can inflame internal dissent, as seen in Syria following the Assad regime’s shock collapse. The Iranian government is likely to consolidate its power at home, tighten control over dissent, and rally nationalist sentiment to pre-empt any internal fragmentation triggered by external military pressure.
Conclusion
Today’s strikes have shattered years of a tense but managed standoff between Israel and Iran. By directly targeting Iran’s nuclear infrastructure and military leadership, Israel has ignited a conflict that could reshape not just regional politics but the global security architecture for years to come.
As Israeli operations continue and Iran calibrates its response, the world has entered a period of deep uncertainty. What unfolds in the coming days may determine not only the future of Iran’s nuclear programme but also the fate of regional diplomacy, global energy markets, and international peace efforts.
