by Ben Griffin M.ISRM, with thanks to Dr David Rubens and the ISRM community
Weʼve all heard the metaphors: Black Swans, Grey Rhinos, Wicked Problems. Theyʼve helped risk professionals frame the unthinkable, the inevitable, and the unsolvable.
But what about the threats that grow because you tried to solve them?
Welcome to the world of Hydra Risk – an emerging threat typology rooted not in probability or complexity, but in regeneration and retaliation.
What Is a Hydra Risk?
Inspired by the mythological beast that grew two heads for every one removed, a Hydra Risk is a threat that evolves in response to intervention.
It is not just persistent. It learns, it shifts, and it grows stronger the moment you try to control it.
Where traditional threats weaken under scrutiny, Hydra Risks become more dangerous when managed with conventional tools.
Examples We Already Know Too Well
- Cybersecurity: Patch one vulnerability, and three more zero-days emerge. Attackers switch from brute force to AI-driven phishing.
- Terrorism: Disrupt one cell, and you trigger splinter groups with decentralised structures.
- Insider Threats: Introduce new vetting, and threat actors adapt their recruitment approach.
- Disinformation: Shut down a campaign on one platform, and it reappears in ten others, more distributed and harder to trace.These are not just complex threats. Theyʼre combative threats.
How Is Hydra Risk Different?
| Metaphor | Threat Type | Behaviour |
| Black Swan | Unpredictable Shock | Low Probability, High Impact |
| Grey Rhino | Obvious & Ignored | High Probability, Known But Neglected |
| Wicked Problem | Complex & Unsolvable | Interconnected, No Clear Solution |
| Hydra Risk | Adaptive & Regenerative | Evolves Under Pressure and Grows When Engaged |
Hydra Risks donʼt just demand attention. They demand a new operating mindset.
Why It Matters Now
Weʼre entering a new age of convergence. Political, technological, economic, and environmental systems are overlapping like never before. That means threats arenʼt just growing—theyʼre mutating.
And yet most organisational responses are still static, siloed, or retrospective.
Hydra Risks show us that resilience canʼt be built around a playbook from last year. We need systems that think on their feet.
What We Should Be Doing
The answer isnʼt to fear the Hydra. Itʼs to outpace it.
- Hydra-aware strategy involves:
- Monitoring behaviours, not just events
- Linking intelligence across departments (comms, ops, IT, HR, compliance)
- Accepting that “fixesˮ may create feedback loops
- Prioritising adaptability over rigidity
- Training leaders to think beyond containmentAt the ISRM and through platforms like TRiMpoint, weʼre exploring how this concept can reshape SeMS, governance models, and enterprise resilience frameworks.
From Metaphor to Methodology
Letʼs be honest. Weʼve spent too long treating Hydra-type threats as one-off failures in risk planning. Theyʼre not. Theyʼre the new baseline.
We need to map them.
Name them.
Share strategies for managing them.
And prepare leaders, not just responders, to see the threat behind the threat.
This post is an opening shot. The white paper version digs deeper, with practical frameworks and recommendations.
Get in touch if you want to collaborate, challenge, or build on it.
Letʼs not just describe the Hydra. Letʼs design systems that can survive it.
Ben Griffin M.ISRM
Aviation Security & Risk Management Consultant
SeMS Validator | Security Instructor | Co-Founder, Praesidium Group bgriffin@praesidiumgroup.org
Footnote: I’d like to thank Dr David Rubens and the ISRM community for supporting ongoing thought leadership in adaptive and regenerative threat landscapes.
