The Global Crisis Watch episodes over August reflect a world grappling with intensifying geopolitical tensions, climate-driven disasters, institutional fragility and the evolving role of risk modelling and artificial intelligence. This Global Risk Review report underscores the urgent need for adaptive governance, strategic foresight and inclusive resilience planning.
ESCALATING GEOPOLITICAL CRISES
- Ukraine & Gaza Conflicts – Escalating military actions, including targeted strikes on civilian and diplomatic sites, raise concerns over humanitarian law violations and deliberate escalation strategies.
- Indonesia and Serbia Unrest – Widespread protests driven by austerity, corruption and governance failures signal rising civic mobilisation and political volatility.
- Iranian Influence Operations – Alleged state-sponsored criminal activity in Australia and Canada highlights the growing use of covert networks to exert geopolitical influence.
- China–Russia–North Korea Axis – Joint appearances at military parades suggest deepening strategic alignment aimed at counterbalancing U.S. influence.
- Latin America – U.S. bounty on Venezuelan president; Venezuela cited as a cautionary case for corruption and violence in resource sectors.
- Middle East Maritime Security – Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping lanes disrupt trade.
CLIMATE AND ENVIRONMENTAL RISKS
- Intensifying Disasters – Europe’s unprecedented wildfires and severe flooding in the U.S. highlight escalating climate-driven disruptions.
- Agricultural and Food Security Threats – Heatwaves and droughts reducing crop yields across Ukraine, India, China, Pakistan, Sub-Saharan Africa and North America; compounded by land-use conflicts.
- Environmental Governance Failures – Brazil’s bill rolling back Amazon protections threatens global carbon absorption; Serbia’s mining strategy risks environmental harm due to weak transparency and oversight.
- Emerging Health Impacts – Climate change worsening allergies, respiratory conditions and spreading disease vectors.
EVOLVING SECURITY THREATS
- Terrorism and Domestic Instability – Haiti’s criminal control and planned Gaza-related protests in the UK signal unconventional and hybrid security threats.
- Infrastructure and Energy Risks – UK’s Sizewell C nuclear project facing engineering challenges; Heathrow’s expansion plans questioned over feasibility and cost. Water security flagged as a critical vulnerability for future conflict.
- Cybersecurity – Concerns over China’s cyber penetration of Western systems.
TECHNOLOGY, SPACE AND AI RISKS
- Space Governance – NASA’s plan to deploy a nuclear reactor on the Moon by 2030 raises questions about territorial claims and militarisation.
- AI and Data Centres – High carbon footprint of AI systems; ‘model collapse’ risks, where AI trains on AI outputs eroding innovation and reliability; sustainability trade-offs between digital infrastructure and environmental costs.
- Innovation opposed to Security – Debate over balancing technological investment with national security priorities.
CORPORATE AND ORGANISATIONAL RISK MANAGEMENT
- ‘New Normal’ of Crises – Companies now face persistent, overlapping disruptions rather than isolated incidents, requiring continuous rather than episodic crisis management.
- Reputational Risk and Social Media – Digital platforms amplify crises and misinformation, making timely, credible messaging essential.
- Leadership and Accountability Gaps – Multiple case studies (Tylenol, Grenfell, Manchester Arena, Deepwater Horizon) illustrate failures in bridging strategic decision-making and operational realities.
- Ethical Decision-Making – Reports emphasise moral courage and principled leadership under uncertainty, warning against punishing ‘false alarms’ that could otherwise save lives.
STRUCTURAL AND GOVERNANCE CHALLENGES
- Contradictions in Global Policy – Western countries simultaneously viewing China as a strategic threat while deepening trade and academic ties; failure of international declarations to translate into meaningful outcomes.
- Resource Inequities – Rising food prices with minimal benefit to farmers, underinvestment in water and energy infrastructure and inequitable supply chains.
- Need for Transparency – Weak oversight in resource governance and restricted access to conflict zones hinder informed action.
- Institutional Fragility – Leadership failures, siloed information sharing and politicised risk assessments slows down crisis response.
- Civilian Survivability – Calls to embed human-centred resilience into planning frameworks, moving beyond infrastructure-focused models.
- Ethics in Risk Governance – Evacuation efforts and disaster response highlight the moral dimension of decision-making.
STRATEGIC IMPERATIVES IN CRISIS MANAGEMENT
- Switching Crisis Management Tactics – An essential shift from reactive crisis response to continuous risk management with embedded resilience could bring a big difference in effective crisis and emergency management.
- Crisis Management Strategies – Build bridges between high-level strategy and groundlevel realities to avoid operational blind spots. Treat climate adaptation as urgent, systemic and multisectoral, not incremental. Strengthen cross-sector collaboration (government, business, tech, health and civil society). Develop a culture that supports decisive action under uncertainty and rewards preparedness over complacency.
- Promise and Pitfalls of Predictive Tools – While risk modelling aids decision-making, overcomplication, bias, and siloed thinking undermine its effectiveness.
- Artificial Intelligence Integration – Artificial intelligence offers efficiency but risks “model collapse”, bias amplification and erosion of human judgment.
- Scenario Planning and Weak Signals – Emphasis on alternative foresight methods to uncover tail risks and anticipate systemic shocks.
