This week, we’re focusing on South and Central Asia — a region where long-standing historical fault lines are re-emerging under current geopolitical pressure, creating a renewed (but often under-reported) instability arc.
In South Asia, the key risk remains the Afghanistan–Pakistan frontier, shaped by the colonial-era Durand Line established in 1893. This border has never been formally accepted by Afghanistan and has long been tied to insurgency, fragile state control and regional competition.
Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, relations between Kabul and Islamabad have fluctuated between limited cooperation and recurring security crises, largely driven by cross-border militant activity and disputes over sovereignty and border control.
What makes this especially relevant in May 2026 is the renewed shift from containment to escalation. During February–March 2026, cross-border clashes and airstrikes were reported along the frontier, signalling weakening deterrence and a return to kinetic signalling between state and non-state actors. Combined with Pakistan’s internal security pressures and economic fragility, this increases spillover risk along a historically sensitive border.
In Central Asia, the backdrop is shaped by the post-Soviet transition of 1991, which left the region dependent on external powers and without a consolidated security framework. Since then, it has functioned as a strategic corridor space influenced by Russian security interests, Chinese economic expansion and shifting Western engagement.
On 14th May 2026, Russia’s deeper engagement with Afghanistan’s Taliban authorities highlighted this ongoing realignment of regional influence across Eurasia.
Today, Central Asia is increasingly shaped by competition over energy routes, critical minerals and trade corridors linking Asia and Europe, reinforcing its role as a strategic transit zone.
Join us this week for Global Risk Forum 438 & 439 as we explore these evolving risk dynamics — and as always, this is an open space to come aboard, share your views and bring in stories, insights or developments from your own part of the world.
- Global Risk Forum 438
- Thursday, 21st May at 17:00 BST / 12:00 EDT
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- Global Risk Forum 439
- Friday, 22nd May at 10:00 BST
- REGISTRATION >>
