You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 349, on Friday, June 27th at 10:00 BST.
The highlighted topics will include:
Fragile Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holds After Two Weeks of Conflict
A fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appears to be holding after nearly two weeks of the most intense military confrontation the two nations have ever experienced. The truce, brokered by US President Donald Trump, took effect following a dramatic escalation that saw Israel strike Iranian nuclear sites and Iran retaliate with missile barrages, including one targeting a US base in Qatar.
Although the ceasefire was initially marred by mutual accusations of violations, both countries have since signaled an end to active hostilities. Israel lifted nationwide security restrictions and reopened its main airport, while Iran reopened its airspace. After ordering strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, President Trump intervened to pressure both sides to halt hostilities, later taking credit for preventing further escalation.
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian hailed the ceasefire as a “great victory” and signaled readiness to engage with the US diplomatically. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu similarly declared a historic win. Yet, beneath the rhetoric, both militaries remain wary. Israeli Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir warned the campaign against Iran is “not over,” and Tehran’s military command cautioned Washington and Tel Aviv to “learn from the blows” it had delivered.
The human cost of the conflict is severe: Iranian officials report over 600 dead, while Israeli casualties stand at 28. Despite significant destruction at Iranian nuclear sites, questions remain over Iran’s ability to quickly restart its program. Analysts believe Iran may need up to two years to build a nuclear weapon – if it chooses to do so.
There are signs Iran may reconsider its commitment to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), while the prospect of renewed diplomatic talks is also imminent. European officials suggest a diplomatic “window” may reopen, depending on whether the truce holds.
Markets responded positively to the ceasefire, with oil prices falling and global stocks rising, reflecting eased fears of wider regional instability.
Whether this marks the end of the conflict or a pause before further escalation remains to be seen. For now, both nations—and the world – watch anxiously.
US Supreme Court Backs Trump in Third-Country Deportation Case
The US Supreme Court has ruled 6-3 in favor of the Trump administration, allowing it to resume deporting migrants to third countries – nations that are not their countries of origin – even without giving them an opportunity to express fears of torture or persecution. The decision reverses a lower court injunction requiring due process protections before such deportations could occur.
The case centers on eight migrants from countries including Myanmar, Cuba and Mexico, who were deported to South Sudan despite a previous ruling from Boston District Judge Brian Murphy. He had blocked such deportations in April, stating that migrants must be informed and given a chance to raise fear-based objections, especially when facing transfer to conflict zones. The Biden-appointed judge criticized the government for trying to sidestep constitutional and international obligations.
The Supreme Court’s conservative majority did not provide a signed opinion, but the three liberal justices expressed strong objection. Justice Sotomayor, joined by Kagan and Jackson, accused the majority of “rewarding lawlessness,” warning that the decision could expose people to grave danger without legal recourse.
The Department of Homeland Security welcomed the decision, calling it “a victory for the safety and security of the American people.” The administration has justified third-country deportations by claiming that certain migrants – often labeled as dangerous criminals – cannot be returned to their home countries due to diplomatic refusals. However, lawyers for the migrants argue many of those deported have no criminal convictions and that the administration is acting punitively and illegally.
Currently, some deportees are being held at a US military base in Djibouti, in makeshift conditions. US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers stationed there report poor health and security risks, including threats from nearby conflict zones.
This ruling is the latest in a series of legal victories for President Trump’s renewed immigration crackdown, including the rollback of protections for hundreds of thousands of migrants from Venezuela, Haiti, Nicaragua and Cuba.
NATO Leaders Endorse Higher Military Spending Despite Internal Divisions
At a pivotal summit in The Hague, NATO leaders agreed to endorse a substantial increase in defence spending, pledging to raise it to 5% of GDP by 2035 – a move seen as a direct response to US President Donald Trump’s long-standing demands. The commitment is aimed at reinforcing alliance unity amid heightened tensions with Russia and growing doubts about US reliability under Trump.
The new spending goal doubles NATO’s current 2% benchmark and will be divided into 3.5% for traditional military expenses – like troops and weaponry – and 1.5% for broader security needs such as cyber defence and infrastructure. While all 32 member states signed onto the pledge, some, like Spain and Belgium, have voiced concerns and sought flexibility due to domestic political constraints and budgetary challenges.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who has played a key role in negotiating the deal, said the increased spending was essential given the “threat from the Russians” and the international security climate. Trump, who has often criticised NATO members for underfunding their militaries, received a warm message from Rutte ahead of the summit, praising his leadership and “decisive action” in Iran.
Trump, however, reignited unease by refusing to fully endorse Article 5 – the alliance’s mutual defence clause – suggesting there are “numerous definitions” of its application. This ambiguity unsettled some allies, especially in eastern Europe, where fears of Russian aggression remain high. Still, leaders like Finland’s President Alexander Stubb welcomed the shift toward a “new NATO” with greater European responsibility.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attended a pre-summit dinner and is expected to meet Trump separately. Ukraine continues to face heavy Russian attacks, with recent missile strikes killing at least 20 civilians.
Despite internal tensions and some countries requesting exemptions, all NATO members have officially agreed to the new defence target – though implementation timelines and commitments vary.
Canada Joins EU Defence Pact, Launches Talks on AI and Digital Trade
At their 20th summit, the European Union and Canada deepened their strategic relationship by launching a new Security and Defence Partnership and initiating negotiations for a Digital Trade Agreement. The move comes amid global geopolitical uncertainty and questions over long-term US commitment to NATO and transatlantic cooperation.
The new Security and Defence Partnership (SDP) allows Canada to collaborate more closely with the EU on crisis management, cyber and hybrid threats, maritime security and joint defence procurement. Canada will also post a defence representative to the EU and may eventually gain access to the EU’s €150 billion SAFE defence procurement fund. EU leaders hailed the partnership as one of the most comprehensive frameworks ever offered to a non-EU country.
European Council President António Costa called the agreement “a powerful political statement,” while Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said it marked a conscious effort to shape a new world order through strong partnerships. The deal also reaffirms EU and Canadian support for Ukraine and Moldova, and includes a shared stance on Middle East tensions, with calls for a Gaza ceasefire and concerns over Iran’s destabilising actions.
In parallel, the EU and Canada launched talks on a Digital Trade Agreement to modernise economic ties in the digital era. Building on the success of their existing CETA (Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement)—which has boosted bilateral trade by 65% – the new talks will centre on cooperation in AI, cybersecurity, digital standards and platform regulation. The agreement is intended to facilitate secure data flows, promote AI innovation and align digital identities across borders.
Canada is the second country after the UK to sign a defence partnership with the EU in recent weeks, a reflection of the EU’s push to strengthen alliances with like-minded democracies as US foreign policy grows more unpredictable.
Both parties reaffirmed their commitment to free and fair trade, shared values and mutual security, marking a new chapter in transatlantic relations.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
