You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 347, on Friday, June 20th at 10:00 BST.
The highlighted topics will include:
Israel–Iran Conflict Escalates as Trump Demands Tehran Evacuation and Khamenei Loses Top Advisers
The Israel–Iran conflict has entered its most dangerous phase in decades, with six consecutive days of intense airstrikes and mounting regional tension. Israel claims to control Iranian airspace and continues to target nuclear facilities, missile sites and senior figures in Iran’s security apparatus. Analysts believe the scale of these strikes indicates a broader ambition beyond nuclear deterrence – potentially aimed at weakening or toppling Iran’s regime.
Iran has responded with waves of missile attacks, particularly targeting Israeli air bases. While Tehran denies seeking nuclear weapons, Israel and the US argue otherwise. US President Donald Trump, attending the G7 summit in Canada, abruptly left the meeting, citing urgent developments in the Middle East. He later called for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” and urged citizens to evacuate Tehran, fueling speculation about potential US military involvement – despite official denials. The Pentagon has since announced the deployment of additional forces to the region.
Internally, Iran is facing serious challenges. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, 86, has lost key military advisers – including the commander of the Revolutionary Guards, its missile chief and its intelligence head – due to Israeli strikes. This has left major gaps in his inner circle and heightened the risk of strategic miscalculation. His son Mojtaba has reportedly stepped in to coordinate decision- making, raising questions about succession and stability within Iran’s ruling elite.
G7 leaders issued a cautious joint statement urging de-escalation across the Middle East while reaffirming support for Israel’s security. French President Emmanuel Macron warned that regime change in Iran, if pursued militarily, could plunge the region into chaos. Trump, however, appeared to embrace Israel’s position more fully, contradicting his intelligence chief’s assessment that Iran is not actively building a bomb.
With over 224 deaths reported in Iran and at least 24 in Israel, the conflict shows no sign of slowing. Energy markets are rattled, and international diplomacy remains stalled. As Israel expands its campaign and Trump hints at new negotiations or escalations, the coming days could shape the future of Iran’s regime and the balance of power in the Middle East.
UN: Civilians ‘Shot While Seeking Food’ in Gaza’s Deadliest Day at Aid Sites
At least 70 Palestinians were killed and over 200 injured on Tuesday when Israeli forces opened fire on civilians gathered near aid distribution sites in Khan Younis, southern Gaza. Eyewitnesses described the use of tank shells, drone strikes and heavy machine gun fire as people queued for basic food supplies – primarily flour – making it the deadliest single day since the Israel- and US-backed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) began operations in late May.
Medical sources at Nasser Hospital reported many victims were in critical condition, with some bodies “shredded to pieces” and difficult to identify. The hospital, already overwhelmed by ongoing conflict, warned that the death toll is likely to rise. In total, 89 Palestinians were killed across Gaza on Tuesday, including the 70 at the aid site.
Since May 26th, when the GHF began its distribution, at least 338 people have been killed and over 2,800 wounded while attempting to access food aid. Survivors of Tuesday’s attack described it as a “massacre,” with people being fired upon as they tried to flee. Israeli military sources claimed they had fired warning shots at individuals approaching military positions but did not confirm whether the shots struck civilians.
The United Nations has condemned the attacks. Secretary-General António Guterres, through a spokesperson, called the deaths “unacceptable” and called for accountability. Major humanitarian organisations, including the UN, have refused to work with the GHF, expressing concern that it bypasses experienced aid groups and may prioritise military goals over civilian welfare.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza remains dire. The World Health Organization reports only 17 of 36 hospitals are even partially operational due to Israel’s ongoing blockade on fuel and supplies. Medical staff warn that many wounded civilians cannot receive adequate care.
Tuesday’s events highlight growing fears that civilians seeking aid are being put at grave risk – and raise urgent questions about the role and effectiveness of international aid operations under current conditions.
Indonesia and Russia seek closer defence and trade links
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto is scheduled to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin this week in St Petersburg, Russia, to discuss strengthening bilateral relations and deepening a “strategic partnership.” The talks coincide with Russia’s annual economic forum, where Putin traditionally hosts foreign leaders and delivers a keynote speech.
The two countries aim to expand cooperation in defense, security, naval operations and trade. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized the readiness of Russia’s state nuclear company, Rosatom, to assist Indonesia in developing an atomic power plant. Both nations are also considering joint military exercises, signaling a desire to solidify military collaboration.
Indonesia’s Foreign Minister Sugiono highlighted the strong personal rapport between Prabowo and Putin, describing it as a foundation for deeper strategic ties. Trade between Russia and Indonesia currently stands at nearly $4.5 billion annually, with intentions to increase this further through enhanced investments and partnerships.
Earlier this year, Indonesia joined the BRICS group of emerging economies, alongside Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. This membership reflects a strong commitment to Indonesia’s growing global economic engagement and its intent to foster closer ties with Russia.
There had been earlier concerns about potential Russian military presence in Papua, Indonesia’s eastern province, but these reports were dismissed by Indonesian authorities last year.
This developing partnership reflects Indonesia’s strategic effort to diversify its international alliances amid shifting global geopolitics.
NASA Data Shows Sharp Rise in Extreme Weather Events
New NASA data reveals a dramatic rise in the frequency, duration and severity of extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, over the past five years. The study shows that last year’s intensity of such events was twice the average recorded between 2003 and 2020. Using satellite data from NASA’s Grace mission, researchers found this increase to be steeper than expected, with climate change seen as the most likely driver.
The findings highlight that global warming intensifies the water cycle, leading to heavier rainfall and prolonged droughts. Rising temperatures also contribute to more severe wildfires and storms worldwide. Experts warn that many communities are unprepared for this new level of climate extremes, which are pushing beyond past weather experiences.
The increases in global extreme weather events coincides with the Trump administration’s decision to defund and dismantle FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency), as well as other agencies such as the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that would have a direct impact on the US’s ability to predict, prepare for and respond to major events.
Vulnerable populations face the greatest hardship, suffering from disrupted food production, forced evacuations and damage to infrastructure. While wealthier groups may adapt more easily, poorer communities bear the brunt of these disasters.
The data is preliminary and requires further years of observation to confirm a lasting trend, but it strongly correlates with rising global temperatures. Scientists stress the urgent need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and improve adaptation efforts to cope with the changes already underway.
The unpredictable nature of these intensified events poses challenges to industries such as insurance and agriculture, and threatens economies and public health globally. The era of “once-in-a-century” disasters is becoming the norm, signaling a future marked by growing climate instability unless decisive action is taken, though there is little indication so far that the world is prepared to take the actions necessary to minimize future events or to mitigate their impacts if they do happen.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
