You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 341, on Friday, May 30th at 10:00 BST.
The highlighted topics will include:
Russia Steps Up Attacks as Ukraine and Moscow Complete Prisoner Swap, Trump Reignites US Debate
Over the past two weeks, Russia has pursued a dual strategy of military escalation and diplomatic delay, aiming to exhaust Ukraine while confusing the West. As Ukrainian officials pushed for a 30-day ceasefire and the US and EU called for an unconditional halt to hostilities, Moscow issued vague proposals for “future talks,” accompanied by a formal-sounding “memorandum.” However, the document lacked any concrete commitments, serving primarily to delay tougher Western sanctions and create the illusion of diplomatic engagement.
At the same time, Russia intensified its air campaign, launching one of the heaviest waves of missile and drone strikes in months. Over 500 drones and rockets targeted Ukrainian cities, destroying infrastructure and killing civilians. Despite this, Russia and Ukraine continued a rare show of cooperation with a large-scale prisoner swap, the biggest since the war began, bringing home hundreds of soldiers from each side. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that over 300 defenders were returned, mostly captured in the Donetsk region, highlighting the human toll amidst ongoing conflict.
Kremlin officials rejected Kyiv’s ceasefire offer, asserting any agreement signed by President Zelensky would be null due to the contested legitimacy of his wartime term extension.
Patience in Europe is wearing thin. Germany lifted restrictions on long-range missile deliveries, signaling increased support, possibly including Taurus missile systems. Meanwhile, political shifts are underway in the US, where President Donald Trump reentered the discourse. Though calling Putin “a little bit crazy,” Trump criticized Zelensky’s approach and revived his pledge to “end the war in 24 hours.” Russian media welcomed Trump as a “pragmatic ideological partner.”
Putin appears to be banking on political divisions – both within the US and across NATO – to outlast Ukrainian resistance. For now, Moscow is content to let the war drag on, using a combination of relentless bombardment and strategic ambiguity to wear down opponents while avoiding significant diplomatic fallout.
US Seeks Gaza Ceasefire as Israel Plans Major Offensive and Jerusalem Tensions Rise
The US is actively pushing a potential ceasefire deal to ease the conflict in Gaza, with Special Envoy Steve Witkoff revealing a proposal that includes a temporary truce in exchange for the release of half the remaining hostages held by Hamas – both living and deceased. This tentative agreement aims to pave the way for formal talks toward a lasting ceasefire. However, the deal remains unofficial and unclear, with conflicting accounts: some Palestinian sources say Hamas is interested, while Israeli officials deny any breakthrough, emphasizing that progress depends on Hamas meeting Israel’s conditions.
Meanwhile, Israel is preparing a major military escalation in Gaza. Orders for evacuation have been issued in southern Gaza, including Khan Younis, signaling plans to occupy up to 75% of the territory within two months. This military push could displace over two million Palestinians into a narrow southern strip, worsening an already dire humanitarian crisis marked by more than 53,000 deaths, including at least 16,500 children, since the conflict escalated last October.
Tensions in Jerusalem are escalating further. During the Jerusalem Day parade on Monday, 26th May, far-right Israeli marchers confronted Palestinians while chanting anti-Arab slogans.
This provoked criticism both domestically and internationally. The visit of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to the Al-Aqsa mosque compound further heightened tensions. On the diplomatic front, countries such as the UK, Canada, Germany and the EU are increasingly vocal in condemning Israeli military actions, with some threatening sanctions or reviewing trade relations.
The ongoing prisoner exchanges offer a rare moment of cooperation between Israel and Hamas, yet attempts at a ceasefire continue to face major obstacles. Hamas demands a full Israeli withdrawal from Gaza as a condition for a permanent truce, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu insists any ceasefire must be temporary and contingent on the release of hostages, with the war continuing until Hamas is defeated.
India’s Defence Shift: Drones and Stealth Fighters Lead Modernisation Push
In May 2025, India and Pakistan engaged in their most intense military clash this century, marked by unprecedented large-scale use of drones. Following a deadly attack in Kashmir blamed by India on Pakistan-backed militants, India launched retaliatory airstrikes. In response, Pakistan sent 300 – 400 drones across thirty-six points along the border, testing Indian air defences. Both sides used a mix of imported and domestically-produced drones for surveillance and precision strikes.
This conflict signals a shift toward a new kind of arms race focused on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). These provide a low-cost, low-risk method for showing military resolve without risking personnel or escalating into full-scale war. India, which plans to triple its UAV investment to $470 million, is fast-tracking drone procurement and development, including loitering munitions. Pakistan, constrained by a smaller air fleet, is ramping up drone production via partnerships with China and Turkey.
Despite deploying advanced drones, both nations also relied on older technologies. India, for instance, successfully used Cold War-era guns integrated with modern radar systems. However, the Indian drone industry remains vulnerable due to reliance on Chinese components, raising supply chain concerns.
In parallel, India has approved a major stealth fighter programme to replace its aging fleet and match Chinese and Pakistani advancements. The project, to be executed with domestic firms, reflects India’s push to modernize its air force and reduce dependence on foreign or slow-moving suppliers like Hindustan Aeronautics.
Experts warn that while UAVs offer strategic advantages, they may also be used in densely populated or disputed territories, increasing the risk of accidental escalation. Nonetheless, both India and Pakistan appear committed to accelerating UAV development as a new frontier of military competition.
Liverpool Parade Attack Spotlights Growing Threat of Vehicle-Rammings
On Monday evening, a 53-year-old white British man drove a grey minivan into crowds gathered to celebrate Liverpool FC’s Premier League victory, injuring over 60 people, including several children. The attack occurred just after 6 p.m. on Water Street, near the end of the victory parade route. Witnesses described the van accelerating into a dense crowd, hitting people with force – one man was thrown into the air and others were trapped beneath the vehicle. The driver was arrested on suspicion of attempted murder, impaired driving and dangerous driving. Police do not believe the incident was linked to terrorism.
The route had been closed to traffic, but the van reportedly entered behind an ambulance that had been allowed through due to a separate emergency. The attack brought a tragic end to what was intended to be a joyful occasion for the city. Political leaders and public figures expressed shock and condemnation. Prime Minister Keir Starmer called the incident “appalling,” and King Charles III offered sympathies to the victims.
Though not linked to any terror group, the incident adds to a rising pattern of vehicle-ramming attacks in recent years. Whether carried out by individuals with ideological motives, mental health challenges or other personal grievances, these assaults have become increasingly frequent and difficult to prevent.
Experts warn that such attacks are particularly challenging for law enforcement and event organizers because vehicles are everyday tools – easy to access, hard to detect as weapons and capable of causing mass harm in seconds. These events often inspire copycats and gain extensive media attention, which may further motivate would-be attackers.
As large public gatherings return across Europe, security services are under pressure to find ways to protect crowds without creating a fortress-like atmosphere. The Liverpool incident underscores the urgent need for updated public safety strategies to address this growing form of urban violence.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
