You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 337, on Friday, May 16th at 10:00 BST.
The highlighted topics will include:
US-Saudi Relations ‘More Powerful Than Ever’ as Trump Courts Gulf Leaders
On his first foreign trip since returning to office, US President Donald Trump visited Saudi Arabia, reaffirming strong ties with the kingdom through a series of high-profile agreements. The most significant announcement was a $142 billion arms deal with Riyadh, accompanied by additional investments that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman said could total up to $1 trillion over time. Trump praised the bilateral relationship as “more powerful than ever before” and emphasized its importance to US economic and strategic interests.
Trump used the visit to signal major shifts in US foreign policy. In a keynote address in Riyadh, he announced the lifting of sanctions on Syria, stating the country deserved “a chance at greatness.” He also
extended an “olive branch” to Iran, offering talks while warning of “massive, maximum pressure” if Tehran rejected diplomacy. Trump reiterated his desire to see Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreements between Israel and several Gulf nations mediated during his first term.
On the ongoing Gaza conflict, Trump made brief remarks, saying civilians “deserve a much better future,” while criticizing Hamas for the violence that erupted after the October 7th attacks on Israel. His speech coincided with news of an Israeli airstrike killing at least 16 people in a hospital in Khan Younis.
The tone of this visit marks a clear distinction from the Biden administration’s more critical stance toward Saudi Arabia. Biden had once vowed to make the kingdom a “pariah” over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, and paused arms sales early in his presidency before resuming them later.
Trump’s four-day tour continues in Qatar and the UAE, with the latter pledging to invest $1.4 trillion in the US economy. His delegation includes business leaders like Elon Musk, underlining his administration’s emphasis on foreign investment and economic diplomacy.
US Cuts China Parcel Tariff as Trade Relations Show Signs of Thawing
The United States has reduced tariffs on small packages from China, signaling a shift in trade relations between the two economic giants. Effective from May 14th the US lowered the “de minimis” tariff from 120% to 54% on parcels valued up to $800. Additionally, a proposed $200 flat fee on these shipments, set to take effect in June, was canceled, keeping the fee at $100. This change follows a broader trade agreement between the US and China, which also included reductions in the overall tariffs between the two countries.
The “de minimis” exemption, which allowed small shipments from China to enter the US without duties or extensive customs inspections, had been heavily utilized by Chinese e-commerce companies like Shein and Temu. These companies, which rely on fast, direct shipping to consumers, were a key factor in the high volume of de minimis shipments entering the US. The Trump administration had previously criticized this exemption for facilitating trade in cheap goods and contributing to the illegal trafficking of items like fentanyl.
The reduction in tariffs provides temporary relief for Chinese retailers, but experts note that the 54% tariff remains high. While it may push companies like Shein to rethink their logistics and shift toward bulk shipping, the tariff reduction gives them time to adapt. The broader trade agreement also slashed US duties on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China reduced its tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10%, both for at least 90 days.
Markets responded positively to the trade deal, and China also lifted a ban on Boeing aircraft deliveries, signaling a step toward normalizing trade relations. While the tariff reductions are temporary, they provide a crucial breathing room for negotiations and allow businesses on both sides to adjust to the changing landscape.
Europe Demands Russia Accept 30-Day Unconditional Ceasefire or Face Sanctions; Zelensky Ready to Meet Putin if Truce Holds
European leaders have ramped up pressure on Russia to agree to an unconditional 30-day ceasefire with Ukraine, demanding its implementation by Monday. The call was made during a meeting of the “coalition of the willing” in Kyiv, attended by leaders from the UK, France, Germany, Poland and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.
The leaders emphasized that failure to comply would result in severe sanctions targeting Russia’s energy and banking sectors. Despite these demands, the Kremlin has insisted that the West must first halt its military support to Ukraine before considering a ceasefire. The leaders of the coalition stress that the ceasefire must be unconditional, rejecting Russia’s request for preconditions. French President Emmanuel Macron confirmed that the ceasefire would be monitored by the US and European nations, with sanctions prepared in the event of violations. This meeting in Kyiv followed a short-lived ceasefire proposed by Russia for Victory Day, which saw minimal reductions in fighting but continued breaches from both sides.
However, President Trump’s public stance complicates European efforts. He called for Ukraine to engage in direct talks with Russia, advocating for immediate negotiations. Trump’s intervention has made it harder for Europe to push for sanctions, as European leaders continue advocating for a truce before any serious negotiations can take place.
Zelensky, while open to talks, insists that a ceasefire must precede any discussions. Zelensky announced his readiness to meet Russian President Vladimir Putin in Istanbul for peace talks, but reaffirmed the need for a ceasefire before negotiations could move forward. The EU is preparing additional sanctions should Russia refuse to implement the ceasefire, with further diplomatic efforts underway.
US-Negotiated Ceasefire Halts India–Pakistan Clash, But Strategic Tensions Linger Over Kashmir
The recent India-Pakistan conflict, instigated by a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir, resulted in a brief but intense military exchange that saw both nations claim victory—but the reality suggests no true winner. India launched airstrikes against what it called terrorist targets in Pakistan, while Pakistan retaliated by claiming it downed five Indian fighter jets, including advanced Rafales—though India has not acknowledged any losses. India, in turn, released satellite images showing damage to Pakistani bases, further fueling the war of competing narratives.
What de-escalated the conflict was not military superiority but urgent US intervention. As tensions neared a nuclear flashpoint, US President Donald Trump assigned Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance to directly contact leaders in both nations. Overnight negotiations, with additional pressure from Saudi Arabia, Iran, the UAE and the UK, resulted in a ceasefire on Saturday. Pakistan openly acknowledged and welcomed the US role, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif praising Trump. India, however, downplayed external influence, insisting the truce was bilateral—an assertion likely rooted in its policy of rejecting foreign mediation on Kashmir.
The ceasefire agreement includes provisions for future talks, possibly in the Gulf, and discussion of issues like the suspended Indus Water Treaty. Kashmir, the root cause of the conflict, will not be immediately addressed. Trump has offered to help find a lasting solution, but India remains firm in treating Kashmir as an internal matter.
Ultimately, the conflict showcased not just the volatility of South Asia but also the limits of nationalist bravado. Despite boasts of victory, both countries were forced to step back from the brink by external pressure, revealing the underlying fragility of peace in the region.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
