You are invited to join us for Global Crisis Watch 339, on Friday, May 23rd at 10:00 BST.
The highlighted topics will include:
Putin and Zelensky Signal Openness to Peace, But War Grinds On
In a flurry of diplomacy on Monday, May 15th, US President Donald Trump announced that Russia and Ukraine have agreed to begin immediate ceasefire talks. After a two-hour phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Trump briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and several EU leaders. While Trump called the talks productive and emphasized that negotiations should lead to an “END to the War,” there was no concrete agreement or timeline for a ceasefire.
Putin expressed general support for resuming talks, thanking Trump for his efforts, but emphasized that any progress must address “the root causes” of the conflict. These include Ukraine dropping NATO ambitions and withdrawing troops from regions Russia occupies—conditions Kyiv rejects. Kremlin officials stressed that negotiations would be complex and take time, and there was “no deadline.”
Zelensky reiterated Ukraine’s readiness for an unconditional ceasefire and welcomed the idea of a joint memorandum as a path to a full peace agreement. He proposed neutral venues such as Turkey, the Vatican or Switzerland for high- level negotiations. Newly elected Pope Leo XIV has reportedly expressed interest in hosting the talks.
European leaders, however, responded to the inconclusive outcome by ramping up sanctions against Russia. Trump, in contrast, declined to impose further sanctions, citing a chance for progress and warning that pressure could backfire.
Critics, including former Swedish Prime Minister Carl Bildt, warned that Putin gained leverage by deflecting pressure for an immediate truce. Trump’s approach – transactional and focused on future trade opportunities – has drawn concern, particularly as the US reduces military aid and refuses to offer security guarantees to Ukraine.
As diplomacy proceeds slowly, the war drags on, with Russia recently launching its largest drone attack since 2022 and continuing to advance in eastern Ukraine.
Hundreds Killed in Gaza as New Israeli Operation Begins
Israel launched a major new ground and air offensive across northern and southern Gaza over the weekend, killing over 400 people since Thursday and shutting down the last functioning hospital in the north. The operation, dubbed “Gideon’s Chariots,” aims to defeat Hamas and secure the release of Israeli hostages. It comes as indirect ceasefire talks resume in Doha, mediated by the US, Qatar and Egypt. Despite signs of limited flexibility, including a Hamas offer (later denied) to exchange hostages for a 60-day ceasefire, a breakthrough appears unlikely. Israel insists it will only end the war if Hamas surrenders—an
offer Hamas rejects.
The humanitarian situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate. The UN warns of imminent famine, as 2.1 million people remain under siege, with hospitals out of service, medical warehouses bombed and basic supplies scarce. Israel has allowed minimal aid to enter under pressure from allies, including the US, but UN officials describe it as woefully insufficient.
International criticism is growing. The UK, France and Canada have threatened sanctions if Israel continues its offensive and aid blockade. President Trump, on a regional tour, skipped Israel and has proposed turning Gaza into a “freedom zone” under US oversight – remarks criticized as unrealistic and provocative. Meanwhile, Israeli leaders hint at full control over Gaza, raising alarm among humanitarian organizations about mass displacement and the long-term fate of the territory.
Despite Israel’s stated coordination with hostage families, their forum warns that the current policy increases the danger to those still held. As fighting intensifies and diplomatic efforts stall, pressure mounts on both sides amid worsening conditions for civilians trapped in the conflict.
China Tightens Grip on Rare Earths Despite US Trade Truce
Although the US and China agreed to a temporary easing of tariffs during recent trade talks in Geneva, China is maintaining strict controls over its rare earth exports – a strategic move that highlights deep, ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite US assurances that Beijing would lift restrictions, China’s export licensing system for rare earth magnets remains active, with no signs of rollback.
These critical minerals are essential to both civilian and military industries, including smartphones, electric vehicles and weapons systems like the F-35 fighter jet. While China produces 61% of global rare earths, it controls over 90% of their processing, giving it enormous leverage. The current system requires exporters to obtain a license for each shipment, offering China a window into global supply chains – particularly those tied to American defense.
Though some US companies were removed from Chinese blacklists, there has been no easing of rare earth controls. Instead, Beijing has cracked down on smuggling and convened provincial officials to tighten oversight. While a few export licenses have been issued – including to Germany’s Volkswagen – experts say the system remains a powerful foreign policy tool. It allows China to selectively approve shipments based on political alignment and can delay or deny licenses to US defense firms.
This cautious but deliberate approach signals that despite surface-level cooperation, Beijing and Washington remain locked in strategic competition. China sees itself not merely as a trade partner, but as a viable global alternative to US dominance – particularly in the developing world. Granting licenses to European firms while stalling American defense applications sends a pointed message: in an era of multipolarity, China intends to use its resource control as long-term geopolitical leverage.
From Separation to Strategy: Post-Brexit Deal Reconnects Britain and Europe
The UK and European Union have reached a comprehensive agreement to reset their relationship, nearly a decade after the Brexit referendum fractured ties. Announced in London by Prime Minister Keir Starmer and EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, the deal spans trade, defence, youth mobility, energy and education – marking the biggest post-Brexit shift in UK-EU cooperation.
The deal aims to reduce trade barriers, notably by easing checks on food, drink and agricultural goods. It introduces a move toward “dynamic alignment” in certain sectors, meaning the UK would follow relevant EU standards—prompting criticism from Eurosceptic parties who view it as a retreat from full sovereignty. However, the government insists key Brexit red lines remain intact, including staying outside the single market.
A twelve-year extension allowing EU fishing vessels access to British waters – until 2038 – was exchanged for smoother trade access and a £360 million investment in UK coastal communities. Defence cooperation has also deepened: the UK will now participate in an EU-wide defence procurement programme and could gain
access to a new €150 billion European defence fund. This closer partnership is a response to security concerns triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine and strategic uncertainty surrounding the US under Donald Trump.
Mobility was another focal point. A capped, time-limited youth scheme is planned, modeled on agreements with Australia and New Zealand, alongside potential UK re-entry into the Erasmus programme. British travellers will also be able to use EU airport e-gates.
The agreement reflects growing UK public support for closer EU ties and Europe’s recognition of the need to act together amid a shifting global order. Starmer described the deal as a “common-sense” solution to years of post-Brexit division. Critics, however, have labelled it a concession to Brussels, warning it risks blurring the line between partnership and dependency.
Plus, all the stories that are catching our attention wherever we live in the world. Feel free to join us and add your voice to the conversation.
